7/25/2008 2:13:05 PM Canadians overwhelmingly favour Barack Obama over John McCain for President of the United States TORONTO: A massive majority of Canadians would like to see Senator Barack Obama win the American presidential election to be held on November 4, 2008 according to a new national poll of 2,025 Canadians conducted by Environics Research. This continues a pronounced trend among Canadians over the past decade toward favouring Democratic presidential candidates over Republicans. The survey shows that seven in ten Canadians (69%) would most like to see Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama win the election, compared to just 15 percent who would prefer to see Republican John McCain win the election. Another 13 percent have no opinion or do not favour either candidate, and two percent volunteer other candidates. Although this presidential election looks to be very competitive among American voters, it is clear that, if Canadians were voting in the U.S. elections, they would favour Senator Obama by the kind of margin that is typically only ever seen in largely African-American enclaves such as the District of Columbia (2004 election John Kerry 88%; George W. Bush 11%). The desire to see Barack Obama win the U.S. presidential election is overwhelming in virtually every single demographic and regional segment of the Canadian population. This preference is particularly intense among Quebecers, university graduates, younger people and those who were born outside of Canada. However, it should be noted that, even among demographic segments that in the U.S. tend to favour John McCain, such as men, older people and rural residents, there is still a powerful preference for Barack Obama in Canada. While supporters of the Liberals, NDP, Greens and Bloc Québécois all overwhelmingly favour Obama over McCain by eight to one margins, it is notable that even among Canadians who would vote Conservative, 60 percent want Barack Obama to win, compared to just 28 percent who want John McCain to win. This very strong preference for Barack Obama over John McCain is virtually identical to the preference that Canadians exhibited in 2004 for Democrat John Kerry when he was challenging President George W. Bush. As can be seen in the graph below, Canadians have not always expressed such a strong preference for Democrats over Republicans. In 1988 and 1992, Canadians were quite divided as to who they wanted to see win the American presidency. It was only in 1996, when Bill Clinton was running for re-election against Bob Dole, that the pro-Democratic tilt among Canadians was first seen. In the 2000 presidential election, when as in 2008 there was no incumbent running for President, Canadians favoured Al Gore over George W. Bush by a comparatively modest 48-29 percent margin. Environics founder Michael Adams noted: “If Canada had been a state in the United States in 1988 and 1992, we would have been a swing state. In the 2000 election, we would have voted like Vermont or Massachusetts. This year, Canada as a whole would vote like inner city Chicago.” For further information, please contact: Derek Leebosh, Senior Associate – Environics Research Group (416) 969-2817 derek.leebosh@environics.ca Methodology These results are taken from an Environics survey of 2,025 Canadians aged 18 and older, conducted in English and French between June 13 and July 5, 2008. On a national basis, these results are accurate to within +/-2.2 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples. Questions (English): An American presidential election will be held in November 2008. Which candidate would you most like to see win: READ AND ROTATE the Democratic Party candidate, Barack Obama or, the Republican Party candidate, John McCain? For pdf attachment click here [ Latest News Articles ]       [ View Past Articles ]