2/7/2008 8:30:00 PM

Alberta Conservatives off to a good start; opposition yet to find traction.

Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party is off to a strong start in the provincial election called this week, according to a new Environics Research Group survey conducted by telephone February 1 – 4, 2008. None of the opposition parties yet appear to be in a position to challenge the government party as the election race begins.

Province Wide Results. At the time of this week’s election call, the Progressive Conservative Party had the support of 52 percent of decided voters. Among the opposition parties, the Liberals are at 25 percent, followed by the NDP at 10 percent, the Green Party at 7 percent, and Wildrose Alliance at 6 percent. Nearly one in five eligible voters (19%) are undecided or chose not to answer the question.

The PC Party enjoys its strongest support among older and more affluent voters, while the Liberal Party is most popular among younger voters and students.

Regional Results. The Conservatives are leading in all areas of the province, but are particularly strong in areas outside of Edmonton and Calgary. Importantly, the PC party has increased its support in Edmonton since the last election – from 34% in the 2004 provincial election to 49% in the current survey. The current results for Calgary are essentially the same as in the last election.



Certainty of Vote Choice. Not only is the Conservative Party leading in the current survey, its supporters are also the most firmly committed to voting for their party. Nearly six in ten Conservative supporters (57%) say they will definitely vote for the party on election day. The comparable figures are four in ten for the Liberals (40%) and the Green Party (39%), three in ten for the Wildrose Alliance (29%) and one-quarter of NDP supporters (26%).

For further information, please contact:
Tony Coulson: 403-802-4300 or tony.coulson@environics.ca
Janet Brown: 403-265-7845 or planetjanet@shaw.ca

Methodology

These results are taken from an Environics Research Group survey of 1,000 Albertans aged 18 and older conducted between February 1 and 4, 2008. On a province wide basis, these results are accurate to within +/-3.1 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples.

The sample was designed to complete 1,000 interviews within households randomly selected across the province. The sample was drawn in proportion to the populations of 12 urban centers and 3 rural regions within Alberta based on information from Statistics Canada 2001 Census Data.



From within each multi-person household contacted, respondents 18 years of age and older were screened for random selection using the “Most Recent Birthday” method. The use of this technique produces results that are as valid and effective as enumerating all persons within a household and selecting one randomly.

Questions: If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
[IF UNDECIDED] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support?

How certain are you that you will actually vote for (party named) on election day. Would you say you... will definitely vote for this party, might change your mind and vote for another party, or might not vote at all?

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